Netflix’s metrics may have set up ‘1899’ to fail.
Last November, Netflix released the first season of 1899, a mind-breaking sci-fi mystery coming from Jantje Friese and Baran bo Odar, the creators of the fan-favorite German series Dark. While the first season of 1899 had its hiccups regarding character development, the show was nevertheless one of the best releases of 2022, pleasing both critics and fans. The show’s first season also shatters expectations with a cliffhanger that reveals the potential of Friese and bo Odar’s plans for a three-season story. And judging by the fact that 1899 remained at the second position of Netflix’s most-viewed English series for three weeks straight after its release, losing only to Wednesday, we all felt confident Friese and bo Odar would be able to finish their intriguing tale of technology and human morality.
Unfortunately, 1899 was prematurely canceled. Without an official statement from the streamer, fans learned the sad news from a statement the showrunners published on Instagram. And so 1899 met the same fate as many shows before, as Netflix weighed over the series budget and the number of viewed hours before ultimately deciding it wasn't worth giving the creators a chance to wrap up their stories. If Netflix’s success metrics seemed puzzling before, the surprise cancelation of 1899 throws even more shade at the streamer decision-making process.
How Does Netflix Measure Its Original Productions’ Success?
If anyone claims to fully understand how Netflix decides to cancel or renew shows, that person is possibly a liar. While Netflix likes to publish viewing numbers as a way to market their original productions, the streamer has remained opaque regarding their decision-making progress. However, we have enough evidence available to at least give us a fair idea of what happens behind the curtains.
The most obvious metric of success used by Netflix is the number of hours viewed. So, if a movie or series has enthralled subscribers longer than other productions, they are considered successful. However, things are not so simple, as Netflix limits its analysis for a short period of time and seems to take into account completion rates when deciding if a show should be renewed.
Every time Netflix reveals a new production broke viewing records and entered the streamer's permanent top-10 chart, as recently happened with Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story and Troll, it’s actually measuring viewership for a period of 28 days. So, when Netflix tells us that Red Notice is their most popular film of all time, with 364.02 million hours viewed, the company is saying this number was reached in the 28 days following the film’s release. So, to be successful, an original production must catch the public’s attention immediately.
On top of all that, it seems like Netflix values completion rates more than the raw number of hours viewed. For instance, in the months that followed The Sandman’s release, Neil Gaiman used his Twitter account to tell fans they should binge the whole thing as soon as possible if they ever hoped for a series renewal. As Gaiman said at the time, Netflix is “looking at "completion rates." So people watching it at their own pace don't show up.” While the company has never made a statement about its use of completion rates, that enlightening behind-the-stage whisper helps us to understand why 1899 was canceled and how ultimately Netflix set the series up for failure.
Did Netflix Set Up '1899' to Fail?
If Netflix does want people to finish their series in less than one month, they would be wise to space up big releases to give the audience time to consume multiple original productions. Unfortunately for 1899, the series didn’t even have a full week before the release of Wednesday. 1899 came out on November 17, while Wednesday followed on November 23. Surprising no one, Wednesday became an instant hit, holding the first position of TV shows viewership for weeks without an end. And as a side effect, 1899 lost traction.
The first season of Wednesday is well worth the attention it got, but even if the series wasn’t as great as it is, it was bound to overshadow 1899. First, Wednesday is part of a long-going beloved franchise, and even people who don’t watch much TV can recognize the Addams Family. Then, the series counted on the face of Jenna Ortega as the titular character, a phenomenal actress that has recently become a horror darling and has a legion of fans. Finally, Wednesday’s marketing campaign was focused on how Tim Burton, the master of darkness, would be directing the show. There are too many big names for people to ignore Wednesday, which explains how the series flew to the top of the charts before word-of-mouth did its job to attest to the series' quality.
Meanwhile, 1899 was released as an English-language series, despite using many different languages to reflect the characters’ multicultural backgrounds, a choice that we know pushes some people away. And while the 1899 cast is nothing less but formidable, there were no big names to grab the public’s attention. We should also consider that Dark became a sleeper hit on Netflix, as fans spread the good word and helped to convince more people to check out a quirky German show that’s brilliant. So, we shouldn’t expect anything different from 1899.
By pittting 1899 against Wednesday, Netflix may have ensured Friese and bo Odar’s story would fail. But even if the competition was fair, which it wasn’t, it’s weird that Netflix’s metrics of success completely dismiss an original production’s release context. These metrics also prevent a series from finding its public over time, condemning many shows to a precipitated cancelation.
While 1899 failed to impress Netflix, the show nevertheless amassed hundreds of millions of hours viewed. And since the show works like a puzzle, people kept discussing the series and breaking down every frame in search of clues that could help fans solve the big mystery behind 1899. This is not a process that happens over a short span of 28 days, but a movement that’s built over time. To add insult to injury, Friese and bo Odar also made it clear that 1899 was the first chapter of something bigger, which means Netflix approved their pitch, and will now leave a massive cliffhanger hanging in the air.
Yes, immediate success is good for business, and Netflix has every right to kill a series that fails to reach audiences. However, the streamer’s metrics to measure said success are far from optimal, and the tragic cancelation of 1899 proves the company should review its approach when it comes to evaluating if a series should be renewed or not.
The first, and sadly the only, season of 1899 is currently available on Netflix.